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USENIX SREcon 2022: Computing Performance 2022: What's On the Horizon

Talk by Brendan Gregg for SREcon 2022 APAC.

Description: "The constant drive for faster computing performance introduces new hardware and software components for the SRE team to manage, observe, monitor, alert, and consider for capacity planning. This session tours the current state for major technologies, discussing performance improvements underway that you may soon be adopting and managing. Topics include processors (including 3D stacking and cloud vendor CPUs), memory (including DDR5 and HBM), disks (including 3D Xpoint), networking (including QUIC and XDP), hypervisors (including lightweight VMs: Firecracker and Cloud Hypervisor), AI-based auto tuning, and more. The future of performance is increasingly cloud-based, with hardware hypervisors and custom processors, observability down to cycle stalls (even as cloud guests), high-speed syscall-avoiding applications (eBPF, FPGAs, and io_uring), and AI-based auto tuning. This session provides ideas for improving performance, reducing latency, and meeting SLOs, and also provides opinions from a performance engineering expert with predictions for the future."

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PDF: SREcon2022_ComputingPerformance.pdf

Keywords (from pdftotext):

slide 1:
    Computing Performance 2022
    What’s On the Horizon
    Brendan Gregg
    SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA
    7–9 December, 2022
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 2:
    Statement from the heart
    I’d like to begin by acknowledging the Traditional Owners of this land and pay
    my respects to Elders past and present.
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 3:
    Disclaimers: About this talk
    This is
    a performance engineer and author's views about server performance
    This isn't
    necessarily about my employer, my employer’s views, or USENIX's views
    an endorsement of any company/product or sponsored by anyone
    professional market predictions (various companies sell such reports)
    based on confidential materials
    necessarily correct or fit for any purpose
    My predictions may be wrong! They will be thought-provoking.
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 4:
    Agenda
    1. Processors
    2. Memory
    3. Disks
    4. Networking
    5. Kernels
    6. Hypervisors
    7. Observability
    8. AI
    Not covering: Languages/runtimes, databases, file systems, front-end, mobile, desktop.
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 5:
    Take Aways
    Awareness of current and future perf technologies
    Design faster systems to meet SLOs and performance needs
    Begin planning new technology support and maintenance
    Slides: https://www.brendangregg.com/Slides/SREcon2022_ComputingPerformance
    These contain extra footnotes as fine print!
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 6:
    1. Processors
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 7:
    Clock rate
    Early Intel Processors
    Processor
    Intel 8086
    Intel 386 DX
    Intel Pentium
    Pentium Pro
    Pentium III
    Intel Xeon
    GHz
    Max GHz
    Year
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 8:
    Clock rate
    Processor
    Xeon X5550
    Xeon E5-2665 0
    Xeon E5-2680 v2
    Platinum 8175M
    Platinum 8259CL
    Xeon ? (R7iz*)
    Cores/T.
    4/8
    8/16
    10/20
    24/48
    24/48
    32/64
    Max GHz
    Threads
    Max GHz
    Hardware Threads
    Year
    Max GHz
    Server Processor Examples (AWS EC2)
    Increase has mostly leveled off due to power/efficiency
    (Blue line.) Workstation processors are higher; E.g., 2020 Xeon W-1270P @5.1 GHz
    Horizontal scaling instead
    (Red line.) More CPU cores, hardware threads, and server instances.
    * R7iz launched one week ago and is still preview only; core/thread count is inferred [Barr 22]
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 9:
    Interconnects
    Year
    CPU Interconnect
    2007 Intel FSB
    2008 Intel QPI
    2017 Intel UPI
    Bandwidth
    Gbytes/s
    10 years:
    4x core count
    3.25x bus rate
    Source: Systems Performance 2nd Edition
    Figure 6.10 [Gregg 20]
    Memory bus (covered later) also lagging
    CPU utilization is wrong
    Often mostly memory/interconnect stalls
    90% CPU
    ...may mean:
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 10:
    Lithography
    Semiconductor Nanometer Process
    32nm
    TSMC expected volume production
    of 3nm in 2022 [Quach 21a], now
    expecting 2023 from Taiwan with a 4nm
    Arizona fab in 2024 [Gooding 22]
    3nm
    2nm
    Meanwhile Intel building USD$20B Ohio
    "mega-fab" [Whalen 22]
    IBM has already built one [Quach 21b]
    Source: Semiconductor device fabrication [Wikipedia 21a]
    BTW: Silicon atom diameter ~0.2 nm [Wikipedia 21b]
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    Lithography limits expected to
    be reached by 2029, switching
    to stacked CPUs. [Moore 20]
    
slide 11:
    Lithography
    “Nanometer process”
    since 2010 should be
    considered a
    marketing term
    Semiconductor Nanometer Process
    32nm
    New terms proposed include [Moore 20]:
    GMT (gate pitch, metal pitch, tiers)
    LMC (logic, memory, interconnects)
    TSMC expected volume production
    of 3nm in 2022 [Quach 21a], now
    expecting 2023 from Taiwan with a 4nm
    Arizona fab in 2024 [Gooding 22]
    3nm
    2nm
    Meanwhile Intel building USD$20B Ohio
    "mega-fab" [Whalen 22]
    Source: Semiconductor device fabrication [Wikipedia 21a]
    BTW: Silicon atom diameter ~0.2 nm [Wikipedia 21b]
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    IBM has already built one [Quach 21b]
    (it has 12nm gate length)
    Lithography limits expected to
    be reached by 2029, switching
    to stacked CPUs. [Moore 20]
    
slide 12:
    Other processor scaling
    Special instructions
    E.g., AVX-512 Vector Neural Network Instructions (VNNI)
    Connected chiplets
    Using embedded multi-die interconnect bridge (EMIB) [Alcorn 17]. E.g., Intel Sapphire Rapids with 4 tiles
    [Tyson 21]; AMD Milan-X with 9 chiplets [Bonshor 22].
    3D stacking
    E.g., Intel HBM, AMD Vcache [Cutress 21]
    Hybrid core architecture
    ARM big.LITTLE; Intel Alder Lake P-cores/E-cores [Alcorn 21]
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 13:
    Recent server processor examples
    Vendor Processor
    Intel
    AMD
    ARMbased
    Process
    Xeon Platinum “10nm”
    8380 (Ice Lake)
    EPYC 9654P “7nm”
    (Genoa)
    Ampere Altra “7nm”
    Max M128-30
    Clock
    Cores/T.
    2.3 - 3.4
    40/80
    LLC
    Date
    Mbytes
    Apr 2021
    2.4 - 3.7
    96/192
    Nov 2022
    128/128
    Sep 2021
    Intel Alder Lake for server (Sapphire Rapids) coming soon. In preview on the Intel Developer Cloud [Intel 22]
    and AWS [Barr 22]. (Meanwhile: "Smuggler Hid Over 200 Alder Lake CPUs in Fake Silicone Belly" [Liu 22].)
    Other server processors: IBM Z, RISC-V
    Coming soon to a datacenter near you
    Although there is a TSMC chip shortage that may last through to 2022/2023 [Quatch 21][Ridley 21]
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 14:
    Cloud chip race
    Amazon ARM/Graviton3
    ARM Neoverse V1, 64 core, 2.6 GHz
    Graviton3E: Customized for HPC
    Generic processors
    x86
    AMD
    ARM
    AWS
    Grav3
    MSFT
    Altra
    Microsoft ARM/Ampere Altra
    ARM-based something was rumored [Warren 20]
    Ampere Altra-based types now launched in Azure [Nash 22]
    Google SoC
    GOOG
    Cloud processors
    Systems-on-Chip (SoC) coming soon [Vahdat 21]
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 15:
    Accelerators
    GPUs
    Parallel workloads, thousands of GPU cores. Widespread adoption in machine learning.
    FPGAs
    Reprogrammable semiconductors
    Great potential, but needs specialists to program
    CPU
    Good for algorithms: compression, cryptocurrency,
    video encoding, genomics, search, etc.
    Microsoft FPGA-based configurable cloud [Russinovich 17]
    Also IPUs, DPUs, TPUs, etc.
    Infrastructure processing units [Kummrow 21]
    Tensor processing units (TPU) [Google 21]
    AWS Trainium ML/AI accelerator Trn1n instances [Mann 22b]
    Ease of use
    The “other” CPUs you
    may not be monitoring
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    GPU
    FPGA
    Performance potential
    
slide 16:
    Latest GPU examples
    NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3090: 10,496 CUDA cores, 2020
    [Burnes 20]
    Cerebras Gen2 WSE: 850,000 AI-optimized cores, 2021
    Use most of the silicon wafer for one chip.
    2.6 trillion transistors, 23 kW. [Trader 21]
    GPU
    Previous version was already the “Largest chip ever built,”
    and US$2M. [insideHPC 20]
    Can now cluster them with Cerebras Wafer-Scale Cluster
    for millions of cores [Cerebras 22]
    SM: Streaming multiprocessor
    SP: Streaming processor
    Control
    Control
    Control
    Control
    Cores (SPs)
    L2 Cache
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 17:
    Latest FPGA examples
    Xilinx Virtex UltraScale+ VU19P, 8,938,000 logic cells, 2019
    Using 35B transistors. Also has 4.5 Tbit/s transceiver bandwidth (bidir), and 1.5 Tbit/sec DDR4 bandwidth
    [Cutress 19]
    Xilinx Virtex UltraScale+ VU9P, 2,586,000 logic cells, 2016
    Deploy right now: AWS EC2 F1 instance type (up to 8 of these FPGAs per instance)
    AMD acquired Xilinx in 2022
    FPGA
    BPF (covered later) already in FPGAs
    E.g., 400 Gbit/s packet filter FFShark [Vega 20]
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 18:
    My Predictions
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 19:
    My Prediction: Multi-socket is doomed
    Single socket is getting big enough (cores)
    Already scaling horizontally (cloud)
    And in datacenters, via “blades” or “microservers”
    Why pay NUMA costs?
    One gt;200
    cores
    Two 1-socket instances should out-perform one 2-socket instance
    Multi-socket may hit some price/performance advantages given rack/chassis overheads and costs
    2 hops
    1 hop
    Mem
    CPU
    CPU
    Mem
    Multi-socket future is mixed: one socket for cores, one GPU socket, one FPGA socket, etc. EMIB connected.
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 20:
    My Prediction: SMT future unclear
    Simultaneous multithreading (SMT) == hardware threads
    Performance variation
    ARM cores competitive
    Post meltdown/spectre
    Some people turn them off
    Possibilities:
    SMT becomes “free”
    Processor feature, not a cost basis
    Turn “oh no! hardware threads” into
    “great! bonus hardware threads!”
    No more hardware threads
    Future investment elsewhere
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 21:
    My Prediction: Core count limits
    Imagine an 850,000-core server processor in today’s systems...
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 22:
    My Prediction: Core count limits
    Worsening problems:
    Memory-bound workloads
    Kernel/app lock contention
    False sharing
    Power consumption
    Core connectivity overheads
    etc.
    Source:
    Figure 2.16
    [Gregg 20]
    General-purpose computing will hit a practical core limit
    For a given memory subsystem & kernel, and running multiple applications
    E.g., 1024 cores (except GPUs/ML/AI); Esperanto RISC-V is already reaching “kilocore” scale [Kostovic 21]
    Apps themselves will hit an even smaller practical limit (some already have by design, e.g., Node.js and 2 CPUs)
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 23:
    My Prediction: P-cores & E-cores
    Intel Alder Lake (desktop) has performance and efficiency cores
    This will come to server
    Efficiency core tasks:
    Garbage collection
    NUMA rebalancing
    FS writeback compression & flushing
    Backups
    Security scanning
    etc.
    Server Processor
    p-core
    AVX-512
    p-core
    AVX-512
    p-core
    e-cores
    AVX-512
    p-core
    AVX-512
    Challenges include AVX-512
    Currently p-cores only, therefore cores aren't symmetric [Cutress 21b]. OS binary/scheduling
    challenges. Similar work: Linux 5.15 (2021) supports asymmetric scheduling for different ARM cores.
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 24:
    My Prediction: 3 Eras of processor scaling
    Delivered processor characteristics:
    Era 1: Clock frequency
    Era 2: Core/thread count
    Era 3: Cache size & policy
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 25:
    My Prediction: 3 Eras of processor scaling
    Practical server limits:
    Era 1: Clock frequency
    → already reached by ~2005 (3.5 GHz)
    Era 2: Core/thread count
    → limited by mid 2030s (e.g., 1024)
    Era 3: Cache size & policy → limited by end of 2030s
    Mid-century will need an entirely new computer hardware architecture, kernel memory architecture, or logic gate
    technology, to progress further.
    E.g., use of graphine, carbon nanotubes [Hruska 12]
    This is after moving more to stacked processors
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 26:
    My Prediction: More processor vendors
    ARM licensed or RISC-V
    Including Apple M1 for servers
    Era of CPU choice
    Cores
    Beware: “optimizing for the benchmark”
    Don’t believe microbenchmarks without doing
    “active benchmarking”: Root-cause perf analysis
    while the benchmark is still running.
    Benchmark Optimizer Unit
    (confidential)
    Intel making changes to compete
    LLC
    Pat Gelsinger now CEO
    MMU
    DogeCPU “+AggressiveOpts” processor
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 27:
    My Prediction: Cloud CPU advantage
    Large cloud vendors can analyze >gt;100,000 workloads directly
    Via PMU PMCs and other processor features.
    Vast real-world detail to aid processor design
    More detail than traditional processor vendors have, and detail available immediately whenever they want.
    Will processor vendors offer their own clouds?
    Intel Developer Cloud launched Sep 2022 for early access to chips and software [Robinson 22]
    Machine-learning aided processor design
    Based on the vast detail. Please point it at real-world workloads and not microbenchmarks.
    Vast detail example: processor trace showing timestamped instructions:
    # perf script --insn-trace --xed
    date 31979 [003] 653971.670163672: ... (/lib/x86_64-linux-gnu/ld-2.27.so) mov %rsp, %rdi
    date 31979 [003] 653971.670163672: ... (/lib/x86_64-linux-gnu/ld-2.27.so) callq 0x7f3bfbf4dea0
    date 31979 [003] 653971.670163672: ... (/lib/x86_64-linux-gnu/ld-2.27.so) pushq %rbp
    [...]
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 28:
    My Prediction: FPGA turning point
    Little adoption (outside crypto & HFT) until major app support
    Solves the ease of use issue: Developers just configure the app (which may fetch and deploy an FMI)
    BPF use cases are welcome, but still specialized/narrow
    Needs runtime support, e.g., the JVM. Already work in this area (e.g., [TornadoVM 21]).
    apt install openjdk-21
    apt install openjdk-21-libfpga
    JVM
    JVM
    FPGA
    Accelerator
    java -XX:+UseFPGA
    (none of this is real, yet)
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 29:
    2. Memory
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 30:
    Many workloads memory I/O bound
    # ./pmcarch 1
    K_CYCLES
    K_INSTR
    334937819 141680781
    329721327 140928522
    330388918 141393325
    329889409 142876183
    [...]
    IPC
    BR_RETIRED
    BR_MISPRED
    BMR%
    LLCREF
    LLCMISS
    LLC%
    # ./pmcarch 1
    K_CYCLES
    K_INSTR
    [...]
    IPC
    BR_RETIRED
    BR_MISPRED
    BMR%
    LLCREF
    LLCMISS
    LLC%
    # ./pmcarch
    K_CYCLES
    K_INSTR
    122697727 13892225
    144881903 17918325
    [...]
    IPC
    BR_RETIRED
    BR_MISPRED
    BMR%
    LLCREF
    LLCMISS
    LLC%
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 31:
    DDR5 has better bandwidth
    DDR5 has a faster bus
    But not width
    512GB DDR5 DIMMs
    Already released by Samsung [Shilov 21]
    Now arriving in clouds
    Needs processor support
    E.g., AWS Graviton2/3, Intel Sapphire Rapids
    Year
    Memory
    DDR-333
    DDR2-800
    DDR3-1600
    DDR4-3200
    DDR5-6400
    Peak Bandwidth
    Gbytes/s
    Desktop/Gamers have known for a while (Nov 2021):
    Gbytes/s
    2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 32:
    DDR latency
    Year
    Latency (ns)
    Memory
    DDR-333
    Latency (ns)
    DDR-333
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 33:
    DDR latency
    Hasn’t changed in 20 years
    This is single access latency
    Same memory clock (200 MHz) [Greenberg 11]
    Also see [Cutress 20][Goering 11]
    Year
    Low-latency DDR does exist
    Reduced Latency DRAM (RLDRAM) by Infineon
    and Micron: lower latency but lower density
    Not seeing widespread server use (I’ve seen it
    marketed towards HFT)
    Latency (ns)
    Memory
    DDR-333
    DDR2-800
    DDR3-1600
    DDR4-3200
    DDR5-6400
    Latency (ns)
    DDR-333
    DDR5-6400
    :-(
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 34:
    HBM
    High bandwidth memory, 3D stacking
    Target uses cases include high performance computing, and virtual reality graphical processing [Macri 15]
    GPUs already use it
    Processors now including HBM on-package
    Intel Sapphire Rapids (Xeon Max) has 64 Gbytes of HBM2e in 4 clusters, for >gt;1 Tbyte/s memory bandwidth
    and >gt;1 Gbyte per core [Pirzada 22]
    No DRAM systems now possible!
    Intel's 3 modes:
    HBM Only: No DRAM
    HBM Flat: 2 memory regions, software to optimize placement
    HBM Caching: HBM caches DDR
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    Processor Package
    cores
    HBM
    I/O
    
slide 35:
    Server DRAM size
    SuperMicro SuperServer B12SPE-CPU-25G
    Single Socket (see earlier slides)
    16 DIMM slots
    4 TB DDR-4
    Processor
    socket
    [SuperMicro 21]
    Facebook Delta Lake (1S) OCP
    6 DIMM slots
    96 Gbytes DDR-4
    DIMMs
    Price/optimal for a typical WSS?
    DIMMs
    B12SPE-CPU-25G
    [Haken 21]
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 36:
    Additional memory tier not successful
    Intel/Micron's 3D XPoint now cancelled [Mann 22]
    - Could also operate in application direct mode and storage mode [Intel 21]
    Main
    memory
    Persistent memory
    Storage devices
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    DRAM (
slide 37:
    My Prediction: Extrapolation
    Not a JEDEC announcement
    Assumes miraculous
    engineering work
    For various challenges see [Peterson 20]
    But will single-access latency
    drop in DDR-6?
    I’d guess not, DDR internals are already at
    their cost-sweet-spot, leaving low-latency
    for other memory technologies
    Year
    Memory
    DDR-333
    DDR2-800
    DDR3-1600
    DDR4-3200
    DDR5-6400
    DDR6-12800
    DDR7-25600
    DDR8-51200
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    Peak Bandwidth
    Gbytes/s
    doubling
    
slide 38:
    My Prediction: DDR5 “up to 2x” Wins
    E.g., IPC 0.1 → ~0.2 for bandwidth-bound workloads
    “good*”
    >gt;2.0
    Instruction bound
    IPC
    “bad”
    
slide 39:
    My Prediction: HBM-only servers
    Clouds offering “high bandwidth memory” HBM-only
    instances
    HBM on-processor
    Finally helping memory catch up to core scaling
    RLDRAM on-package as another option?
    “Low latency memory” instance
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 40:
    My Prior Prediction: Extra tier too late
    Competition isn’t disks, it’s Tbytes of DRAM
    SuperMicro’s single socket should hit 8 Tbytes DDR-5
    AWS EC2 p4.24xl has 1.1 Tbytes of DRAM (deploy now!)
    How often does your working set size (WSS) not fit?
    Across several of these for redundancy?
    Next tier needs to get much bigger than DRAM (10+x)
    and much cheaper to find an extra-tier use case
    (e.g., cost based).
    Meanwhile, DRAM is still getting bigger and faster
    I developed the first cache tier between main memory
    and disks to see widespread use:
    the ZFS L2ARC [Gregg 08]
    Main
    memory
    Persistent memory
    Storage devices
    WSS
    “cold”
    data
    
slide 41:
    3. Disks
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 42:
    Recent timeline for rotational disks
    2005: Perpendicular magnetic recording (PMR)
    Writes vertically using a shaped magnetic field for higher density
    2013: Shingled magnetic recording (SMR)
    (next slide)
    2019: Multi-actuator technology (MAT)
    Two sets of heads and actuators; like 2-drive RAID 0 [Alcorn 17].
    2020: Energy-assisted magnetic recording (EAMR)
    Western Digital 18TB & 20TB [Salter 20]
    2021: Heat-assisted magnetic recording (HAMR)
    Seagate 20TB HAMR drives [Shilov 21b]
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 43:
    Recent timeline for rotational disks
    2005: Perpendicular magnetic recording (PMR)
    Writes vertically using a shaped magnetic field for higher density
    2013: Shingled magnetic recording (SMR)
    (next slide)
    2019: Multi-actuator technology (MAT)
    Two sets of heads and actuators; like 2-drive RAID 0 [Alcorn 17].
    2020: Energy-assisted magnetic recording (EAMR)
    Western Digital 18TB & 20TB [Salter 20]
    2021: Heat-assisted magnetic recording (HAMR)
    Seagate 20TB HAMR drives [Shilov 21b]
    I don’t know their perf characteristics yet
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 44:
    SMR
    11-25% more storage, worse performance
    Writes tracks in an overlapping way, like shingles on a roof. [Shimpi 13]
    Overwritten data must be rewritten. Suited for archival (write once) workloads.
    Read head
    Written tracks
    Look out for 18TB/20TB-with-SMR drive releases
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 45:
    Flash memory-based disks
    Single-Level Cell (SLC)
    Multi-Level Cell (MLC)
    Enterprise MLC (eMLC)
    2009: Tri-Level Cell (TLC)
    2009: Quad-Level Cell (QLC)
    QLC is only rated for around 1,000 block-erase cycles [Liu 20].
    2013: 3D NAND / Vertical NAND (V-NAND)
    SK Hynix envisions 600-Layer 3D NAND [Shilov 21c]. Should be multi-Tbyte.
    2017-2022: Intel Optane (3D XPoint persistent memory) disks, now cancelled; was used as an accelerator
    SSD performance pathologies: latency from aging, wear-leveling, fragmentation, internal compression, etc.
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 46:
    Storage Interconnects
    SAS-4 cards in development
    (Storage attached SCSI)
    PCIe 5.0 coming soon
    (Peripheral Component Interconnect Express)
    Intel already demoed on Sapphire Rapids [Hruska 20]
    NVMe 1.4 latest
    (Non-Volatile Memory Express)
    Storage over PCIe bus
    Support zoned namespace SSDs (ZNS) [ZonedStorage 21]
    Bandwidth bounded by PCIe bus
    These have features other than speed
    Reliability, power management, virtualization support, etc.
    Year
    Specified
    202?
    Interface
    Year
    Specified
    Interface
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    SAS-1
    SAS-2
    SAS-3
    SAS-4
    SAS-5
    PCIe 1
    PCIe 2
    PCIe 3
    PCIe 4
    PCIe 5
    Bandwidth
    Gbit/s
    Bandwidth 16
    lane Gbyte/s
    
slide 47:
    Latest storage device examples
    2022 SSD: Samsung PM1743 [Smith 22]
    Up to 15.36 Tbytes
    PCIe Gen5
    Sequential reads up to 13 Gbytes/sec
    2022 HDD: Seagate Exos 2x18 [Seagate 22]
    18 or 16 Tbytes
    Helium sealed
    Multi-actuator (2 x sets of heads) for "2x more performance"
    Up to 554 Mbytes/sec: "SSD performance"
    7200 RPM
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 48:
    Linux Kyber I/O scheduler
    Multi-queue, target read & write latency
    Up to 300x lower 99th percentile latencies [Gregg 18]
    Linux 4.12 [Corbet 17]
    reads (sync)
    writes (async)
    Kyber (simplified)
    dispatch
    dispatch
    queue size adjust
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    completions
    
slide 49:
    My Prediction: Slower rotational
    Archive focus
    There’s ever-increasing demand for storage (incl. social video today; social VR tomorrow?)
    Needed for archives
    More “weird” pathologies. SMR is just the start.
    Even less tolerant to shouting
    Bigger, slower, and weirder
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 50:
    My Prediction: More flash pathologies
    Worse internal lifetime
    More wear-leveling & logic
    More latency outliers
    Bigger, faster, and weirder
    We need more observability of flash drive internals
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 51:
    4. Networking
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 52:
    Latest Hardware
    400 Gbit/s in use
    E.g., 400 Gbit/s switches/routers by Cisco and Juniper, tranceivers by Arista and Intel
    AWS EC2 P4 instance type (deploy now!)
    On PCI, needs PCIe 5
    800 Gbit/s next
    [Charlene 20]
    Terabit Ethernet (1 Tbit/s) not far away
    More NIC features
    E.g., inline kTLS (TLS offload to the NIC), e.g., Mellanox ConnectX-6-Dx [Gallatin 19]
    FPGA, P4, and eBPF support.
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 53:
    Protocols
    QUIC / HTTP/3
    TCP-like sessions over (fast) UDP.
    0-RTT connection handshakes. For clients that have previously communicated.
    MP-TCP
    Multipath TCP. Use multiple paths in parallel to improve throughput and reliability. RFC-8684 [Ford 20]
    Linux support starting in 5.6.
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 54:
    Linux TCP Congestion Control Algorithms
    DCTCP
    Data Center TCP. Linux 3.18. [Borkmann 14]
    TCP NV
    New Vegas. Linux 4.8
    TCP BBR
    Bottleneck Bandwidth and RTT (BBR) improves performance on packet loss networks [Cardwell 16]
    With 1% packet loss, Netflix sees 3x better throughput [Gregg 18]
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 55:
    Linux Network Stack
    Queues/
    Tuning
    Source: Systems Performance 2nd Edition, Figure 10.8 [Gregg 20]
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 56:
    Linux TCP send path
    Keeps adding performance features
    Source: Systems Performance 2nd Edition, Figure 10.11 [Gregg 20]
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 57:
    Software
    eXpress Data Path (XDP) (uses eBPF)
    Programmable fast lane for networking. In the Linux kernel.
    A role previously served by DPDK and kernel bypass.
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 58:
    My Prediction: BPF in FPGAs/IPUs
    Massive I/O tranceiver capabilities
    Netronome already did BPF in hardware
    Edge computing on the NICs
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 59:
    My Prediction: Cheap BPF routers
    Linux + BPF + 400 GbE NIC
    Cheap == commodity hardware
    Use case from the beginning of eBPF (PLUMgrid)
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 60:
    My Prediction: More demand for network perf
    Apps increasingly network
    World of sensors
    Remote work & video conferencing
    Netflix 4K content
    VR tourism & multiverse
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 61:
    5. Kernels
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 62:
    Latest Kernels/OSes
    May 2022: FreeBSD 13.1
    Oct 2022: Linux 6.0 ("Hurr durr I'ma ninja sloth" [Torvalds 22])
    Nov 2022: Windows 22H2 (10.0.22621.900)
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 63:
    Recent Linux perf features
    2022: IPv6 jumbograms, packets >gt;64 Kbytes (5.19)
    2021: BPF kernel function calls, e.g., for TCP cong ctrl (5.13)
    2020: Static calls to improve Spectre-fix (5.10)
    2020: BPF on socket lookups (5.9)
    2020: Thermal pressure (5.7)
    2020: MultiPath TCP (5.6)
    2019: MADV_COLD, MADV_PAGEOUT (5.4)
    Plus lots more, including support for the
    2019: io_uring (5.1)
    latest x86/AMD/ARM/etc. instructions
    (e.g., AMX in 5.16, LoongArch in 5.19)
    2019: UDP GRO (5.0)
    2019: Multi-queue I/O default (5.0)
    For 2016-2018, see my summary: [Gregg 18].
    Includes CPU schedulers (thermal, topology);
    2018: TCP EDT (4.20)
    Block I/O qdiscs; Kyber scheduler (earlier slide);
    2018: PSI (4.20)
    TCP congestion control algoritms (earlier slide); etc.
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 64:
    Recent Linux perf features
    2022: IPv6 jumbograms, packets >gt;64 Kbytes (5.19)
    2021: BPF kernel function calls, e.g., for TCP cong ctrl (5.13)
    2020: Static calls to improve Spectre-fix (5.10)
    2020: BPF on socket lookups (5.9)
    2020: Thermal pressure (5.7)
    2020: MultiPath TCP (5.6)
    2019: MADV_COLD, MADV_PAGEOUT (5.4)
    Plus lots more, including support for the
    2019: io_uring (5.1)
    latest x86/AMD/ARM/etc. instructions
    (e.g., AMX in 5.16, LoongArch in 5.19)
    2019: UDP GRO (5.0)
    2019: Multi-queue I/O default (5.0)
    For 2016-2018, see my summary: [Gregg 18].
    Includes CPU schedulers (thermal, topology);
    2018: TCP EDT (4.20)
    Block I/O qdiscs; Kyber scheduler (earlier slide);
    2018: PSI (4.20)
    TCP congestion control algoritms (earlier slide); etc.
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 65:
    io_uring
    Faster syscalls using
    shared ring buffers
    Send and completion ring buffers
    Allows I/O to be batched and async
    Primary use cases network and disk I/O
    Apps
    syscalls
    io_uring
    Kernel
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 66:
    eBPF Everywhere
    [Thaler 21]
    Plus eBPF for BSD projects already started.
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 67:
    eBPF == BPF
    2015:
    BPF: Berkeley Packet Filter
    eBPF: extended BPF
    2022:
    “Classic BPF”: Berkeley Packet Filter
    BPF: A technology name (aka eBPF)
    Kernel engineers like to use “BPF”; companies “eBPF”.
    This is what happens when you don’t have marketing professionals help name your product.
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 68:
    BPF Future: Event-based Applications
    User-mode
    Applications
    Kernel-mode
    Applications (BPF)
    U.E.
    Scheduler
    Kernel
    Kernel
    Events
    Hardware Events (incl. clock)
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 69:
    https://twitter.com/srostedt/status/1177147373283418112
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 70:
    Emerging BPF uses
    Observability agents
    Security intrusion detection, zero-day mitigation
    TCP congestion control algorithms
    Application accelerators
    E.g., Orange bmc-cached accelerator for memcached [Ghigoff 21]
    General kernel development
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 71:
    My Prediction: Future BPF Uses
    File system buffering/readahead policies
    CPU scheduler policies
    Lightweight I/O-bound applications (e.g., proxies)
    Or such apps can go to io_uring or FPGAs. “Three buses arrived at once.”
    When I did engineering at University: “people ride buses and electrons ride busses.” Unfortunately that
    usage has gone out of fashion, otherwise it would have been clear which bus I was referring to!
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 72:
    My Prediction: Easy/Auto PGO
    PGO/AutoFDO shows ~10% wins, but hard to manage
    Performance-guided optimization (PGO) / Auto feedback-directed optimization (AutoFDO)
    Some companies already do kernel PGO (Google [Tolvanen 20], Microsoft [Bearman 20])
    We can't leave 10% on the table forever, someone will do an easy-PGO product or it becomes a feature of AI
    auto-tuners.
    Partial JIT support?
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 73:
    My Prediction: Kernel emulation often slow
    I can run gt; apps under gt;
    by emulating gt; syscalls!
    Cool project, but:
    Missing latest kernel and perf features (E.g., Linux’s BPF, io_uring, WireGuard, etc. Plus certain syscall flags
    return ENOTSUP. So it’s like a weird old fork of Linux.)
    Some exceptions: E.g., another kernel may have better hardware support, which may benefit apps
    more than the loss of kernel capabilities.
    Debugging and security challenges. Better ROI with lightweight VMs.
    In other words, WSL2 >gt;>gt; WSL1
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 74:
    My Prediction: OS performance
    Linux: increasing complexity & worse perf defaults
    Linux at FAANGs and other large companies is often very different to the Linux publicly available, as they have perf and
    OS teams who can configure advanced technologies and tune and fix things (like enabling frame pointers). This means
    most experts are not tuning the Linux you are using and various defaults get little attention and rot (e.g., high-speed
    network engineers configure XDP and QUIC, and aren’t looking at defaults with TCP). A bit more room for a lightweight
    kernel (e.g., BSD) with better perf defaults to compete. Similarities: Oracle DB vs MySQL; MULTICS vs UNIX.
    BSD: high perf for narrow uses
    Still serving some companies (including Netflix) very well thanks to tuned performance (see footnote on p124 of [Gregg
    20]). Path to growth is better EC2/Azure performance support, but it may take years before a big customer (with a perf
    team) migrates and gets everything fixed. There are over a dozen of perf engineers working on Linux on EC2; BSD needs
    at least one full time senior EC2 (not metal) perf engineer.
    Windows: community perf improvements
    BPF tracing support allows outsiders to root cause kernel problems like never before (beyond ETW/Xperf). Will have a
    wave of finding “low hanging fruit” to begin with, improving perf and reliability.
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 75:
    My Prediction: Unikernels
    Finally gets one compelling published use case
    “2x perf for X”
    But few people run X
    Needs to be really kernel heavy, and not many workloads are. And there’s already a lot of competition for
    reducing kernel overhead (BPF, io_uring, FPGAs, DPDK, etc.)
    Once one use case is found, it may form a valuable community around X and Unikernels. But it needs the
    published use case to start, preferably from a FAANG.
    Does need to be 2x or more, not 20%, to overcome the cost of retooling everything, redoing all observability
    metrics, profilers, etc. It’s not impossible, but not easy [Gregg 16].
    More OS-research-style wins found from hybrid- and micro-kernels.
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 76:
    6. Hypervisors
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 77:
    Containers
    Cgroup v2 rollout
    Container scheduler adoption
    Kubernetes, OpenStack, and more
    Netflix develops its own called “Titus” [Joshi 18]
    Price/performance gains: “Tetris packing” workloads without too much interference (clever scheduler)
    Many perf tools still not “container aware”
    Usage in a container not restricted to the container, or not permitted by default (needs CAP_PERFMON
    CAP_SYS_PTRACE, CAP_SYS_ADMIN)
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 78:
    Hardware Hypervisors
    Source: Systems Performance 2nd Edition, Figure 11.17 [Gregg 20]
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 79:
    VM Improvements
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    Source:
    [Gregg 17]
    
slide 80:
    Lightweight VMs
    Examples:
    Source: Systems Performance 2nd Edition, Figure 11.4 [Gregg 20]
    AWS “Firecracker”
    Intel/ARM/AMD/Microsoft/etc. "Cloud Hypervisor" [CloudHypervisor 22]
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 81:
    My Prediction: Containers
    Perf tools take several years to be fully “container aware”
    Includes non-root BPF work.
    It’s a lot of work, and not enough engineers are working on it. We’ll use workarounds in the meantime (e.g.,
    Kyle Anderson and Sargun Dhillon have made perf tools work in containers at Netflix).
    Was the same with Solaris Zones (long slow process).
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 82:
    My Prediction: Landscape
    Short term:
    Containers everywhere
    Long term:
    More containers than VMs
    More lightweight VM cores than container cores
    Hottest workloads switch to dedicated kernels (no kernel resource sharing, no seccomp overhead,
    no overlay overhead, full perf tool access, PGO kernels, etc.)
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 83:
    My Prediction: Evolution
    1.FaaS
    Light workload
    2.Container
    3.Lightweight VM
    4.Metal
    Heavy workload
    Many apps aren’t heavy
    Metal can also mean single container on metal
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 84:
    My Prediction: Cloud Computing
    Microservice consolidation becomes a hot topic, to lower
    communication costs
    Container schedulers co-locating chatty services
    With BPF-based accelerated networking between them (e.g., Cilium)
    Cloud-wide runtime schedulers co-locating apps
    Multiple apps under one JVM roof and process address space
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 85:
    7. Observability
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 86:
    USENIX 2010: Heat maps
    2022: Latency heat maps everywhere
    Computing Performance: On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    [Gregg 10]
    
slide 87:
    USENIX 2013: Flame graphs
    2022: Flame graphs everywhere
    Computing Performance: On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    [Gregg 13]
    
slide 88:
    USENIX 2016: BPF
    2022: BPF heading everywhere
    Computing Performance: On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    [Gregg 16b]
    
slide 89:
    2022: Age of Seeing
    Flame graphs everywhere
    Latency heat maps
    eBPF & bpftrace
    PMCs in the cloud
    More info: flame graphs [Gregg 13], heat maps [Gregg 10],
    and eBPF [Gregg 16b]
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 90:
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 91:
    BPF Perf Tools
    (In red are the new open source
    tools I developed for the
    BPF book)
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 92:
    Example BPF tool
    # execsnoop.py -T
    TIME(s) PCOMM
    run
    bash
    svstat
    perl
    grep
    sed
    xargs
    cut
    echo
    mkdir
    [...]
    run
    bash
    svstat
    perl
    [...]
    PID
    PPID
    RET
    ARGS
    ./run
    /bin/bash
    /command/svstat /service/httpd
    /usr/bin/perl -e $l=gt;;$l=~/(\d+) sec/;p...
    /bin/ps --ppid 1 -o pid,cmd,args
    /bin/grep org.apache.catalina
    /bin/sed s/^ *//;
    /usr/bin/xargs
    /usr/bin/cut -d -f 1
    /bin/echo
    /bin/mkdir -v -p /data/tomcat
    ./run
    /bin/bash
    /command/svstat /service/httpd
    /usr/bin/perl -e $l=gt;;$l=~/(\d+) sec/;p...
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 93:
    Example bpftrace one-liner
    # bpftrace -e 't:block:block_rq_issue { @[args->gt;rwbs] = count(); }'
    Attaching 1 probe...
    @[R]: 1
    @[RM]: 1
    @[WFS]: 2
    @[FF]: 3
    @[WSM]: 9
    @[RA]: 10
    @[WM]: 12
    @[WS]: 29
    @[R]: 107
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 94:
    libbpf-tools
    # ./opensnoop
    PID
    COMM
    27974 opensnoop
    redis-server
    […]
    FD ERR PATH
    0 /etc/localtime
    0 /proc/1482/stat
    # ldd opensnoop
    linux-vdso.so.1 (0x00007ffddf3f1000)
    libelf.so.1 =>gt; /usr/lib/x86_64-linux-gnu/libelf.so.1 (0x00007f9fb7836000)
    libz.so.1 =>gt; /lib/x86_64-linux-gnu/libz.so.1 (0x00007f9fb7619000)
    libc.so.6 =>gt; /lib/x86_64-linux-gnu/libc.so.6 (0x00007f9fb7228000)
    /lib64/ld-linux-x86-64.so.2 (0x00007f9fb7c76000)
    # ls -lh opensnoop opensnoop.stripped
    -rwxr-xr-x 1 root root 645K Feb 28 23:18 opensnoop
    -rwxr-xr-x 1 root root 151K Feb 28 23:33 opensnoop.stripped
    151 Kbytes for a stand-alone BPF program!
    (Note: A static bpftrace/BTF + scripts will also have a small average tool size)
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 95:
    Modern Open Source Observability Stack
    OpenTelemetry
    Grafana
    Standard for monitoring and tracing
    Prometheus
    Monitoring database
    Grafana
    UI with dashboards
    Now supports flame graphs [GrafanaLabs 22]
    Source: Figure 1.4 [Gregg 20]
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 96:
    Zero-Instrumentation APM
    (Application Performance Monitoring)
    Installation instructions:
    1) Install the agent
    2) Done! (no code changes required)
    Uses uprobes to instrument HTTP/SSL calls
    Don't even need to restart anything. Great for apps where you can't change the code. But,
    uprobes are slow and unstable: >gt;1.2us minimum, which is 15x higher than kprobes.
    I would not recommend this approach until:
    Someone does the Linux uprobe speedup work I discussed at LSFMMBPF22 in Palm Springs.
    USDT is provided instead (which is based on uprobes) to fix stability.
    Can also use eBPF for in-kernel aggregations and programs.
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 97:
    My Prediction: BPF tool front-ends
    bpftrace
    For one-liners and to hack up new tools
    When you want to spend an afternoon developing some custom BPF tracing
    libbpf-tools
    For packaged BPF binary tools and BPF products
    When you want to spend weeks developing BPF
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 98:
    My Prediction: Too many BPF tools
    (I’m partly to blame)
    2014: I have no tools for this problem
    2024: I have too many tools for this problem
    Tool creators: Focus on solving something no other tool can. Necessity is the mother of good BPF tools.
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 99:
    My Prediction: BPF perf tool future
    GUIs, not CLI tools
    Tool output, visualized
    This GUI is in development by Susie Xia, Netflix
    The end user may not even know it’s using BPF
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 100:
    My Prediction: Zero-instrumentation APM
    Multiple startups will be selling this
    Someone blogs: "OpenTelemetry more stable and faster"
    This gives uprobes/eBPF a bad name, unfairly, as none of us in uprobe/eBPF land recommend this use case
    until the speed/stability issues are fixed
    Fast uprobes available in Linux in 2024?
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 101:
    My Prediction: Flame scope adoption
    Analyze variance, perturbations:
    Flame graph
    Subsecond-offset heat map
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    [Spier 20]
    
slide 102:
    Recap so far
    1. Processors
    2. Memory
    3. Disks
    4. Networking
    5. Kernels
    6. Hypervisors
    7. Observability
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 103:
    Performance engineering is getting more complex
    1. Processors: CPUs, GPUs, FPGAs, TPUs
    2. Memory: DRAM, RLDRAM, HBM, 3D XPoint
    3. Disks: PMR, SMR, MAT, EAMR, HAMR, SLC, MLC, ...
    4. Networking: QUIC, MP-TCP, XDP, qdiscs, pacing, BQL, ...
    5. Kernels: BPF, io_uring, PGO, Linux complexity
    6. Hypervisors: VMs, Containers, LightweightVMs
    7. Observability: BPF, PMCs, heat maps, flame graphs,
    OpenTelemetry, Prometheus, Grafana
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 104:
    Performance engineering is getting more fun!
    1. Processors: CPUs, GPUs, FPGAs, TPUs
    2. Memory: DRAM, RLDRAM, HBM, 3D XPoint
    3. Disks: PMR, SMR, MAT, EAMR, HAMR, SLC, MLC, ...
    4. Networking: QUIC, MP-TCP, XDP, qdiscs, pacing, BQL, ...
    5. Kernels: BPF, io_uring, PGO, Linux complexity
    6. Hypervisors: VMs, Containers, LightweightVMs
    7. Observability: BPF, PMCs, heat maps, flame graphs,
    OpenTelemetry, Prometheus, Grafana
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 105:
    8. AI
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 106:
    AI Auto-Tuning
    One approach to deal with the complexity:
    All The Things!
    1. Processors: CPUs, GPUs, FPGAs, TPUs
    2. Memory: DRAM, RLDRAM, HBM, 3D XPoint
    3. Disks: PMR, SMR, MAT, EAMR, HAMR, SLC, MLC, ...
    4. Networking: QUIC, MP-TCP, XDP, qdiscs, pacing, BQL, ...
    5. Kernels: BPF, io_uring, PGO, Linux complexity
    Server
    tuning
    6. Hypervisors: VMs, Containers, LightweightVMs
    7. Observability: BPF, PMCs, heat maps, flame graphs,
    OpenTelemetry, Prometheus, Grafana
    E.g., Intel Granulate,
    Akamas,
    etc.
    Implications for SRE? (E.g., change control)
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 107:
    My Prediction: AI useful but limited
    Great at adapting the past, applying known tuning
    Paint an astronaut in the style of Van Gogh
    Apply system tuning in the style of Brendan Gregg (tunables I've shared in the past)
    Should be a useful and more widely-adopted product, especially for small/medium sites that have little
    time for tuning.
    Turning point: "The Million Dollar Tunable"
    Someone uses AI to find an overlooked tunable that they coud have enabled years ago.
    The industry is getting more complex, and more chances things are overlooked. The time is right for
    using AI to help.
    Poor at solving "never seen before" mental-leap issues
    I spend most of my time as a performance engineer solving these
    Beyond past experience or extrapolation
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 108:
    References (1)
    [Gregg 08] Brendan Gregg, “ZFS L2ARC,” http://www.brendangregg.com/blog/2008-07-22/zfs-l2arc.html, Jul 2008
    [Gregg 10] Brendan Gregg, “Visualizations for Performance Analysis (and More),”
    https://www.usenix.org/conference/lisa10/visualizations-performance-analysis-and-more, 2010
    [Greenberg 11] Marc Greenberg, “DDR4: Double the speed, double the latency? Make sure your system can handle next-generation
    DRAM,” https://www.chipestimate.com/DDR4-Double-the-speed-double-the-latencyMake-sure-your-system-can-handlenext-generation-DRAM/Cadence/Technical-Article/2011/11/22, Nov 2011
    [Hruska 12] Joel Hruska, “The future of CPU scaling: Exploring options on the cutting edge,”
    https://www.extremetech.com/computing/184946-14nm-7nm-5nm-how-low-can-cmos-go-it-depends-if-you-ask-theengineers-or-the-economists, Feb 2012
    [Gregg 13] Brendan Gregg, “Blazing Performance with Flame Graphs,”
    https://www.usenix.org/conference/lisa13/technical-sessions/plenary/gregg, 2013
    [Shimpi 13] Anand Lal Shimpi, “Seagate to Ship 5TB HDD in 2014 using Shingled Magnetic Recording,”
    https://www.anandtech.com/show/7290/seagate-to-ship-5tb-hdd-in-2014-using-shingled-magnetic-recording, Sep 2013
    [Borkmann 14] Daniel Borkmann, “net: tcp: add DCTCP congestion control algorithm,”
    https://git.kernel.org/pub/scm/linux/kernel/git/torvalds/linux.git/commit/?
    id=e3118e8359bb7c59555aca60c725106e6d78c5ce, 2014
    [Macri 15] Joe Macri, “Introducing HBM,” https://www.amd.com/en/technologies/hbm, Jul 2015
    [Cardwell 16] Neal Cardwell, et al., “BBR: Congestion-Based Congestion Control,” https://queue.acm.org/detail.cfm?id=3022184,
    [Gregg 16] Brendan Gregg, “Unikernel Profiling: Flame Graphs from dom0,” http://www.brendangregg.com/blog/2016-01-27/unikernelprofiling-from-dom0.html, Jan 2016
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 109:
    References (2)
    [Gregg 16b] Brendan Gregg, “Linux BPF Superpowers,” https://www.brendangregg.com/blog/2016-03-05/linux-bpf-superpowers.html,
    [Alcorn 17] Paul Alcorn, “Seagate To Double HDD Speed With Multi-Actuator Technology,” https://www.tomshardware.com/news/hddmulti-actuator-heads-seagate,36132.html, 2017
    [Alcorn 17b] Paul Alcorn, “Hot Chips 2017: Intel Deep Dives Into EMIB,” https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-emib-interconnectfpga-chiplet,35316.html#xenforo-comments-3112212, 2017
    [Corbet 17] Jonathan Corbet, “Two new block I/O schedulers for 4.12,” https://lwn.net/Articles/720675, Apr 2017
    [Gregg 17] Brendan Gregg, “AWS EC2 Virtualization 2017: Introducing Nitro,” http://www.brendangregg.com/blog/2017-11-29/awsec2-virtualization-2017.html, Nov 2017
    [Russinovich 17] Mark Russinovich, “Inside the Microsoft FPGA-based configurable cloud,”
    https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/video/inside-microsoft-fpga-based-configurable-cloud, 2017
    [Gregg 18] Brendan Gregg, “Linux Performance 2018,” http://www.brendangregg.com/Slides/Percona2018_Linux_Performance.pdf,
    [Hady 18] Frank Hady, “Achieve Consistent Low Latency for Your Storage-Intensive Workloads,”
    https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/architecture-and-technology/optane-technology/low-latency-for-storageintensive-workloads-article-brief.html, 2018
    [Joshi 18] Amit Joshi, et al., “Titus, the Netflix container management platform, is now open source,” https://netflixtechblog.com/titusthe-netflix-container-management-platform-is-now-open-source-f868c9fb5436, Apr 2018
    [Cutress 19] Dr. Ian Cutress, “Xilinx Announces World Largest FPGA: Virtex Ultrascale+ VU19P with 9m Cells,”
    https://www.anandtech.com/show/14798/xilinx-announces-world-largest-fpga-virtex-ultrascale-vu19p-with-9m-cells, Aug
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 110:
    References (3)
    [Gallatin 19] Drew Gallatin, “Kernel TLS and hardware TLS offload in FreeBSD 13,”
    https://people.freebsd.org/~gallatin/talks/euro2019-ktls.pdf, 2019
    [Bearman 20] Ian Bearman, “Exploring Profile Guided Optimization of the Linux Kernel,”
    https://linuxplumbersconf.org/event/7/contributions/771, 2020
    [Burnes 20] Andrew Burnes, “GeForce RTX 30 Series Graphics Cards: The Ultimate Play,”
    https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/geforce/news/introducing-rtx-30-series-graphics-cards, Sep 2020
    [Charlene 20] Charlene, “800G Is Coming: Set Pace to More Higher Speed Applications,” https://community.fs.com/blog/800-gigabitethernet-and-optics.html, May 2020
    [Cutress 20] Dr. Ian Cutress, “Insights into DDR5 Sub-timings and Latencies,” https://www.anandtech.com/show/16143/insights-intoddr5-subtimings-and-latencies, Oct 2020
    [Ford 20] A. Ford, et al., “TCP Extensions for Multipath Operation with Multiple Addresses,”
    https://datatracker.ietf.org/doc/html/rfc8684, Mar 2020
    [Gregg 20] Brendan Gregg, “Systems Performance: Enterprise and the Cloud, Second Edition,” Addison-Wesley, 2020
    [Hruska 20] Joel Hruska, “Intel Demos PCIe 5.0 on Upcoming Sapphire Rapids CPUs,”
    https://www.extremetech.com/computing/316257-intel-demos-pcie-5-0-on-upcoming-sapphire-rapids-cpus,
    Oct 2020
    [Liu 20] Linda Liu, “Samsung QVO vs EVO vs PRO: What’s the Difference? [Clone Disk],”
    https://www.partitionwizard.com/clone-disk/samsung-qvo-vs-evo.html, 2020
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 111:
    References (4)
    [Moore 20] Samuel K. Moore, “A Better Way to Measure Progress in Semiconductors,”
    https://spectrum.ieee.org/semiconductors/devices/a-better-way-to-measure-progress-in-semiconductors, Jul 2020
    [Peterson 20] Zachariah Peterson, “DDR5 vs. DDR6: Here's What to Expect in RAM Modules,” https://resources.altium.com/p/ddr5-vsddr6-heres-what-expect-ram-modules, Nov 2020
    [Salter 20] Jim Salter, “Western Digital releases new 18TB, 20TB EAMR drives,” https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2020/07/westerndigital-releases-new-18tb-20tb-eamr-drives, Jul 2020
    [Spier 20] Martin Spier, Brendan Gregg, et al., “FlameScope,” https://github.com/Netflix/flamescope, 2020
    [Tolvanen 20] Sami Tolvanen, Bill Wendling, and Nick Desaulniers, “LTO, PGO, and AutoFDO in the Kernel,” Linux Plumber’s
    Conference, https://linuxplumbersconf.org/event/7/contributions/798, 2020
    [Vega 20] Juan Camilo Vega, Marco Antonio Merlini, Paul Chow, “FFShark: A 100G FPGA Implementation of BPF Filtering for
    Wireshark,” IEEE 28th Annual International Symposium on Field-Programmable Custom Computing Machines (FCCM),
    [Warren 20] Tom Warren, “Microsoft reportedly designing its own ARM-based chips for servers and Surface PCs,”
    https://www.theverge.com/2020/12/18/22189450/microsoft-arm-processors-chips-servers-surface-report, Dec 2020
    [Alcorn 21] Paul Alcorn, “Intel Shares Alder Lake Pricing, Specs and Gaming Performance: $589 for 16 Cores,”
    https://www.tomshardware.com/features/intel-shares-alder-lake-pricing-specs-and-gaming-performance, Oct 2021
    [Cutress 21] Ian Cutress, “AMD Demonstrates Stacked 3D V-Cache Technology: 192 MB at 2 TB/sec,”
    https://www.anandtech.com/show/16725/amd-demonstrates-stacked-vcache-technology-2-tbsec-for-15-gaming, May 2021
    [Google 21] Google, “Cloud TPU,” https://cloud.google.com/tpu, 2021
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 112:
    References (5)
    [Haken 21] Michael Haken, et al., “Delta Lake 1S Server Design Specification 1v05, https://www.opencompute.org/documents/deltalake-1s-server-design-specification-1v05-pdf, 2021
    [Intel 21] Intel corporation, “Intel® OptaneTM Technology,” https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/products/docs/storage/optanetechnology-brief.html, 2021
    [Kostovic 21] Aleksandar Kostovic, “Esperanto Delivers Kilocore Processor in its Supercomputer-on-a-Chip Design,”
    https://www.tomshardware.com/news/esperanto-kilocore-processor, Aug 2021
    [Kummrow 21] Patricia Kummrow, “The IPU: A New, Strategic Resource for Cloud Service Providers,”
    https://itpeernetwork.intel.com/ipu-cloud/#gs.g5pkub, Aug 2021
    [Quach 21a] Katyanna Quach, “Global chip shortage probably won't let up until 2023, warns TSMC: CEO 'still expects capacity to
    tighten more',” https://www.theregister.com/2021/04/16/tsmc_chip_forecast, Apr 2021
    [Quach 21b] Katyanna Quach, “IBM says it's built the world's first 2nm semiconductor chips,”
    https://www.theregister.com/2021/05/06/ibm_2nm_semiconductor_chips, May 2021
    [Ridley 21] Jacob Ridley, “IBM agrees with Intel and TSMC: this chip shortage isn't going to end anytime soon,”
    https://www.pcgamer.com/ibm-agrees-with-intel-and-tsmc-this-chip-shortage-isnt-going-to-end-anytime-soon, May 2021
    [Shilov 21] Anton Shilov, “Samsung Develops 512GB DDR5 Module with HKMG DDR5 Chips,”
    https://www.tomshardware.com/news/samsung-512gb-ddr5-memory-module, Mar 2021
    [Shilov 21b] Anton Shilov, “Seagate Ships 20TB HAMR HDDs Commercially, Increases Shipments of Mach.2 Drives,”
    https://www.tomshardware.com/news/seagate-ships-hamr-hdds-increases-dual-actuator-shipments, 2021
    [Shilov 21c] Anton Shilov, “SK Hynix Envisions 600-Layer 3D NAND & EUV-Based DRAM,” https://www.tomshardware.com/news/skhynix-600-layer-3d-nand-euv-dram, Mar 2021
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 113:
    References (6)
    [SuperMicro 21] SuperMicro, “B12SPE-CPU-25G (For SuperServer Only),”
    https://www.supermicro.com/en/products/motherboard/B12SPE-CPU-25G, 2021
    [Thaler 21] Dave Thaler, Poorna Gaddehosur, “Making eBPF work on Windows,”
    https://cloudblogs.microsoft.com/opensource/2021/05/10/making-ebpf-work-on-windows, May 2021
    [TornadoVM 21] TornadoVM, “TornadoVM Run your software faster and simpler!” https://www.tornadovm.org, 2021
    [Trader 21] Tiffany Trader, “Cerebras Second-Gen 7nm Wafer Scale Engine Doubles AI Performance Over First-Gen Chip ,”
    https://www.enterpriseai.news/2021/04/21/latest-cerebras-second-gen-7nm-wafer-scale-engine-doubles-ai-performanceover-first-gen-chip, Apr 2021
    [Ghigoff 21] Yoann Ghigoff, et al., "BMC: Accelerating Memcached using Safe In-kernel Caching and Pre-stack Processing,"
    Proceedings of the 18th USENIX Symposium on Networked Systems Design and Implementation,
    https://www.usenix.org/system/files/nsdi21-ghigoff.pdf, Apr 2021
    [Tyson 21] Mark Tyson, "Intel Sapphire Rapids utillises tiled, modular SoC architecture," https://hexus.net/tech/news/cpu/148266-intelsapphire-rapids-utillises-tiled-modular-soc-architecture/, Aug 2021
    [Vahdat 21] Amin Vahdat, “The past, present and future of custom compute at Google,”
    https://cloud.google.com/blog/topics/systems/the-past-present-and-future-of-custom-compute-at-google, Mar 2021
    [Wikipedia 21] “Semiconductor device fabrication,” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semiconductor_device_fabrication, 2021
    [Wikipedia 21b] “Silicon,” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silicon, 2021
    [ZonedStorage 21] Zoned Storage, “Zoned Namespaces (ZNS) SSDs,” https://zonedstorage.io/introduction/zns, 2021
    [Cutress 21b] Dr. Ian Cutress, Andrei Frumusanu, "The Intel 12th Gen Core i9-12900K Review: Hybrid Performance Brings Hybrid
    Complexity," https://www.anandtech.com/show/17047/the-intel-12th-gen-core-i912900k-review-hybrid-performancebrings-hybrid-complexity, Nov 2021
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 114:
    References (7)
    [Nash 22] Paul Nash, "Now in preview: Azure Virtual Machines with Ampere Altra Arm-based processors,"
    https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/now-in-preview-azure-virtual-machines-with-ampere-altra-armbased-processors/,
    Apr 2022
    [Bonshor 22] Gavin Bonshor, "AMD Releases Milan-X CPUs With 3D V-Cache," https://www.anandtech.com/show/17323/amdreleases-milan-x-cpus-with-3d-vcache-epyc-7003, Mar 2022
    [Mann 22] Tobias Mann, "Why Intel killed its Optane memory business,"
    https://www.theregister.com/2022/07/29/intel_optane_memory_dead/, Jul 2022
    [Torvalds 22] Linus Torvalds, “Linux 6.0-rc1,” https://git.kernel.org/pub/scm/linux/kernel/git/torvalds/linux.git/commit/?
    id=568035b01cfb107af8d2e4bd2fb9aea22cf5b868, Aug 2022
    [Whalen 22] Jeanne Whalen, "Biden’s visit shows high stakes of $20 billion Ohio chip factory," https://www.washingtonpost.com/uspolicy/2022/09/09/biden-intel-ohio-chip-factory/, Sep 2022
    [Robinson 22] Dan Robinson, "Intel has a secret club in the cloud for devs to try out new chips – and you ain't in it,"
    https://www.theregister.com/2022/09/28/intel_developer_cloud/, Sep 2022
    [CloudHypervisor 22] Cloud Hypervisor Project (Linux Foundation), "Run Cloud Virtual Machines Securely and Efficiently,"
    https://www.cloudhypervisor.org, accessed 2022
    [Cerebras 22] Cerebras, "Cerebras Wafer-Scale Cluster," https://www.cerebras.net/product-cluster, accessed 2022
    [GrafanaLabs 22] Grafana Labs, "https://grafana.com/docs/grafana/latest/panels-visualizations/visualizations/flame-graph/,"
    https://grafana.com/docs/grafana/latest/panels-visualizations/visualizations/flame-graph/, accessed 2022
    [Pirzada 22] Usman Pirzada, "Intel Announces The Worlds First x86 CPU With HBM Memory: Xeon Max ‘Sapphire Rapids’ Data
    Center CPU," https://wccftech.com/intel-announces-the-worlds-first-x86-cpu-with-hbm-memory-xeon-max-sapphirerapids-data-center-cpu/, Nov 2022
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 115:
    References (8)
    [Smith 22] Lyle Smith, "Samsung PM1743 PCIe Gen5 SSD First Take Review," https://www.storagereview.com/review/samsungpm1743-pcie-gen5-ssd-first-take-review, Jan 2022
    [Barr 22] Jeff Barr, "New Amazon EC2 Instance Types In the Works – C7gn, R7iz, and Hpc7g,"
    https://aws.amazon.com/blogs/aws/new-amazon-ec2-instance-types-in-the-works-c7gn-r7iz-and-hpc7g, Nov 2022
    [Gooding 22] Matthew Gooding, "TSMC’s US fab will make 4nm chips for Apple, AMD and Nvidia,"
    https://techmonitor.ai/technology/silicon/tsmcs-arizona-apple-amd-nvidia, Dec 2022
    [Liu 22] Zhiye Liu, "Smuggler Hid Over 200 Alder Lake CPUs in Fake Silicone Belly," https://www.tomshardware.com/news/smugglerhid-over-200-alder-lake-cpus-in-fake-silicone-belly, Dec 2022
    [Seagate 22] Seagato, "Exos X Series," https://www.seagate.com/au/en/products/enterprise-drives/exos-x/, accessed 2022
    [Mann 22b] Tobais Mann, "Nvidia not cutting it? Google and Amazon’s latest AI chips have arrived,"
    https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/11/google_amazon_ai_chips_nvidia/, Oct 2022
    [Intel 22] Intel, "Intel® Developer Cloud," https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/developer/tools/devcloud/overview.html, accessed
    Dec 2022
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 116:
    Take Aways
    Awareness of current and future perf technologies
    Design faster systems to meet SLOs and performance needs
    Begin planning new technology support and maintenance
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 117:
    Old System
    DRAM
    Processor
    Processor
    DRAM
    Bridge
    NICs
    HBAs
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    
slide 118:
    Example Future System
    Processor
    chiplet chiplet
    P-cores P-cores
    chiplet chiplet
    E-cores E-cores
    HBM
    IPU
    NICs
    eBPF
    HBAs
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)
    GPU
    FPGA/
    TPU/
    DPU
    No DRAM in this example!
    
slide 119:
    Thanks
    Thanks for attending Sydney's first USENIX event!
    Slides: http://www.brendangregg.com
    Thanks to colleagues Jason Koch, Sargun Dhillon, Drew Gallatin, and Guy Cirino for
    their performance engineering expertise.
    Thanks to USENIX organizers!
    SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA
    7–9 December, 2022
    USENIX SREcon Computing Performance 2022: What’s On the Horizon (Brendan Gregg)